Insight: "With the government shutdown and interest rates peaking, it’s a good time to buy TLT because people are worried the stock market could crash."
Outcome: Successfully predicted the best time to buy TLT when the price was low, resulting in a profit of about $85,000. Note: The market effects of the government shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, became more apparent by late January 2019 (Morgan Stanley) (markets.businessinsider.com).
Insight: "If the coronavirus becomes a big outbreak, people will panic, and the market will drop."
Outcome: Correctly predicted the market crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a profit of about $150,000. Note: The general market began realizing the impact of COVID-19 in late February 2020, with significant declines starting around February 19, 2020 (McKinsey & Company) (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Insight: "Because of all the money the government is putting into the economy, we could see prices go up a lot soon."
Outcome: Accurately saw the signs of inflation before it affected the market, resulting in a profit of about $120,000. Note: The broader market started to notice inflation concerns in the months following major stimulus packages (McKinsey & Company) (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Insight: "It's the right time to buy cryptocurrency because it’s about to go up a lot."
Outcome: Bought cryptocurrency just before its huge price increase, generating a profit of about $200,000. Note: The significant rise in cryptocurrency values was broadly recognized by early 2021 (McKinsey & Company) (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
📉 Decline in Chinese Stocks (1/16/2021)